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For my 2nd math exploration, I wanted to look into polling from the 2016 election, but specifically I wanted to look at the question, how were our polling numbers so wrong? So, to do this, I looked at some of the final polls from major news sources in the 2016 election. We are going to be looking at 3 major polling sources: ABC News/Wash Post, Fox News, and Monmouth. We are going to compare the 3, and look at state polls and national polls from the week before the election.

Data:(From RealClearPolitics)
National Polls: (Disclaimer: National Polls are practically worthless because they don’t determine the winner of the election, but they are commonly advertised and promoted by national news sources, so they are important to include)

Monmouth: Clinton: 50>Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton + 6
ABC News: Clinton: 47> Trump: 43, Margain, Clinton +4
Fox News: Clinton: 48> Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton +4
Real National Result: Clinton: 65,845,063> Trump, 62,980,160
Percentage: Clinton, 48.8> Trump, 46.7

Final Analysis: In reality, the national polls weren’t very far off from the actual result. They may have been misleading, but in reality, most of, if not all national polls are misleading. Democrats have won the Popular vote in 4 out of the past 5 elections, but have only won the electoral college twice. So, the news sources weren’t very far off, and with the exception of Monmouth, a 2 percent error is not too bad.

Statewide Polls: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
These were the three most controversial states in the 2016 election. This was because all three were supposed to be likely going to Clinton. Yet, the opposite happened, and all three were claimed by trump, and were a huge help in catapulting him to the 270 that he needed. We will be looking at different polling sources for all 3 states, from the week before the election. (All Data from RealClearPolitics)

Michigan:
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell: Clinton 50>Trump 45: Margain: Clinton +5
Detroit Free Press: Clinton 42> Trump 38, Margain: Clinton +4
Election Result: Clinton 47.0<Trump 47.3, Margain: Trump +0.3

Wisconsin:
Marquette: Clinton 46> Trump 40, Margain: Clinton +6
Emerson: Clinton 48> Trump 42, Margain: Clinton +6
Election Result: Clinton 46.5 < Trump 47.2, Margain, Trump +0.7

Pennsylvania:
Monmouth: Clinton 48 > Trump 44, Margain, Clinton + 4
Susquehanna: Clinton 45 > Trump 43, Margain, Clinton + 2
Election Result: Clinton 47.5< Trump 48.2, Margain, Trump + 0.7

Analysis: When looking at these, it is clear that a trend developed during the 2016 election. Polls went one way, and the election went the other way. In all 6 polls I looked at, the data was one way, and the election went the other. While the Pennsylvania and Michigan polls weren’t horribly wrong, they still were incorrect. On the other hand, the Wisconsin polls were a complete disaster, and an example of the problems with polling during the 2016 election.





    

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  • Home
  • Who We Are
  • HOW TO SUBMIT
  • Past Publications
    • 2019 Publication >
      • Scientific Research
      • Mathematical Exploration
      • Scientific Exploration
      • Computer Science
    • 2018 Publication >
      • Artistic Creations
      • Historical and Current Explanations
      • Mathematic and Scientific Exploration
      • Scientific Research
    • 2017 Publication >
      • Artistic Creations
      • Historical and Current Explanations
      • Mathematic and Scientific Exploration
      • Reactions and Responses
      • Scientific Research
    • 2016 Publication >
      • Historical and Current Explanations
      • Mathematic and Scientific Explorations
      • Scientific Research
      • Reactions and Responses
      • Artistic Creations
    • 2015 Publication >
      • Historical and Current Explanations >
        • Bell Curves
        • Birds Vs. Turbines
        • Energy in the Obama Era
        • The Future of Neuroscience
        • Gender Gap in Math
        • GMOs--Yes or No?
        • The History of Minecraft: How a Swedish Indie Game Came to Dominate the World
        • The Effect of Prozac on the Brain
        • Philae Lander's Discovery of Organic Molecules
        • Advantages and Disadvantages of Wind Turbines
        • Your Own Worst Enemy: An Overview of Lupus
        • The Methylhex Ban
        • The Effect of Lyme Disease on the Immune system
        • Infectious Mononucleosis
        • Replacing CFCs
        • The Switch
      • Mathematic and Scientific Explorations >
        • The 43rd Figure
        • The Clock
        • The Collatz Conjecture
        • Constructing a Soccer Ball
        • Determining how Ballparks Affect Batter's Ability to Create Hits
        • The Rotating Conundrum
        • Pythagorean Puzzle
        • Mathematic and Scientific Explorations
        • Kinetics Lab
        • Math in the Restaurant Business
        • Math as a Vessel for Social Change
        • Sustainability of Bottled Vs. Tap Water
        • Thoughts on the Lottery
        • Understanding Player Efficiency Rating
      • Scientific Research >
        • Communicating With Computers
        • The Mystery of Asthma
        • The Nanoscopic War Against Cancer
        • Phytochemistry
        • Solving the energy crisis with Intermediate Band Solar Cells
        • A Pain That Never Ends
        • Rapamycin Resistance
        • Ampacity of a Single Core Horizontal Cable
        • Morphological Properties of Texting Acronym Formation
        • cGAS and STING Expression
      • Reactions and Responses >
        • Can Humans Survive the Climate Crisis?
        • My Experience as a Teacher's Assistant
        • Ted Talk Responses
        • Teens For Food Justice
      • Artistic Creations >
        • Chandelier
        • Deltoidal Hexacontrahedon
        • Dodecahedron Card Trick
        • Eye of the Triangle
        • Free Radric Delantic Davis
        • The Grid
        • What Does A Randomly Composed Song Sound Like?
        • Science Wing Mural
    • 2014 Publication >
      • Cover Photo
      • Artistic Creations >
        • Art Using the Fibonacci Sequence
        • Computer Generated Architecture and Designs
        • Mathematical Landscape
        • Math Art
        • Math in Music
      • Historical and Current Explanations >
        • Algae Bio-Fuel
        • An Energy Alternative
        • Clean Energy In Transportation
        • Calorie Restriction
        • Creating Energy in the Modern World
        • Dietary Intervention Impact on Gut Microbial Gene Richness
        • Earthly Applications for NASA Technology
        • Explaining Relative Motion
        • Exploring Artificial Inteligence
        • Gamma Function
        • How Leaves Work
        • Hydrogen Fuel Cells
        • Music and Brain Development
        • Programming Calculators
        • The Science of Microsatellites
        • Sci-Fi Taser
        • Sloane's Gap
        • Sustainable Energy: Why Some Ideas Shine Brighter than Others
        • Understanding The Galvanic Cell
        • The Virus: Our Unforeseen Philosopher's Stone
        • What Are Fuel Cells and How Do They Work?
      • Mathematic and Scientific Explorations >
        • Astrocytes Expressing ALS-Linked Mutated SOD1 Release Factors Selectively Toxic to Motor Neurons
        • Big Bang
        • Dictyostelium Discoideum
        • The Future of Solar Cell Technology
        • And Many More...
      • Reactions and Responses >
        • Alternative Energy Sources, New but Unused
        • An Insight Into the Curious World of Ethnobotany
        • Challenging What We Think We Know
        • The Current State of American Education
        • Discovering New Numbers
        • Interview With an Architect
        • Life of Pi Response
        • Mathematical Art Video Commentary
        • Missing from Science Class
        • The Museum of Math
        • The Inside Scoop on a Real Mathematician
    • 2013 Publication