For my 2nd math exploration, I wanted to look into polling from the 2016 election, but specifically I wanted to look at the question, how were our polling numbers so wrong? So, to do this, I looked at some of the final polls from major news sources in the 2016 election. We are going to be looking at 3 major polling sources: ABC News/Wash Post, Fox News, and Monmouth. We are going to compare the 3, and look at state polls and national polls from the week before the election.
Data:(From RealClearPolitics)
National Polls: (Disclaimer: National Polls are practically worthless because they don’t determine the winner of the election, but they are commonly advertised and promoted by national news sources, so they are important to include)
Monmouth: Clinton: 50>Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton + 6
ABC News: Clinton: 47> Trump: 43, Margain, Clinton +4
Fox News: Clinton: 48> Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton +4
Real National Result: Clinton: 65,845,063> Trump, 62,980,160
Percentage: Clinton, 48.8> Trump, 46.7
Final Analysis: In reality, the national polls weren’t very far off from the actual result. They may have been misleading, but in reality, most of, if not all national polls are misleading. Democrats have won the Popular vote in 4 out of the past 5 elections, but have only won the electoral college twice. So, the news sources weren’t very far off, and with the exception of Monmouth, a 2 percent error is not too bad.
Statewide Polls: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
These were the three most controversial states in the 2016 election. This was because all three were supposed to be likely going to Clinton. Yet, the opposite happened, and all three were claimed by trump, and were a huge help in catapulting him to the 270 that he needed. We will be looking at different polling sources for all 3 states, from the week before the election. (All Data from RealClearPolitics)
Michigan:
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell: Clinton 50>Trump 45: Margain: Clinton +5
Detroit Free Press: Clinton 42> Trump 38, Margain: Clinton +4
Election Result: Clinton 47.0<Trump 47.3, Margain: Trump +0.3
Wisconsin:
Marquette: Clinton 46> Trump 40, Margain: Clinton +6
Emerson: Clinton 48> Trump 42, Margain: Clinton +6
Election Result: Clinton 46.5 < Trump 47.2, Margain, Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania:
Monmouth: Clinton 48 > Trump 44, Margain, Clinton + 4
Susquehanna: Clinton 45 > Trump 43, Margain, Clinton + 2
Election Result: Clinton 47.5< Trump 48.2, Margain, Trump + 0.7
Analysis: When looking at these, it is clear that a trend developed during the 2016 election. Polls went one way, and the election went the other way. In all 6 polls I looked at, the data was one way, and the election went the other. While the Pennsylvania and Michigan polls weren’t horribly wrong, they still were incorrect. On the other hand, the Wisconsin polls were a complete disaster, and an example of the problems with polling during the 2016 election.
Data:(From RealClearPolitics)
National Polls: (Disclaimer: National Polls are practically worthless because they don’t determine the winner of the election, but they are commonly advertised and promoted by national news sources, so they are important to include)
Monmouth: Clinton: 50>Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton + 6
ABC News: Clinton: 47> Trump: 43, Margain, Clinton +4
Fox News: Clinton: 48> Trump: 44, Margain, Clinton +4
Real National Result: Clinton: 65,845,063> Trump, 62,980,160
Percentage: Clinton, 48.8> Trump, 46.7
Final Analysis: In reality, the national polls weren’t very far off from the actual result. They may have been misleading, but in reality, most of, if not all national polls are misleading. Democrats have won the Popular vote in 4 out of the past 5 elections, but have only won the electoral college twice. So, the news sources weren’t very far off, and with the exception of Monmouth, a 2 percent error is not too bad.
Statewide Polls: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
These were the three most controversial states in the 2016 election. This was because all three were supposed to be likely going to Clinton. Yet, the opposite happened, and all three were claimed by trump, and were a huge help in catapulting him to the 270 that he needed. We will be looking at different polling sources for all 3 states, from the week before the election. (All Data from RealClearPolitics)
Michigan:
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell: Clinton 50>Trump 45: Margain: Clinton +5
Detroit Free Press: Clinton 42> Trump 38, Margain: Clinton +4
Election Result: Clinton 47.0<Trump 47.3, Margain: Trump +0.3
Wisconsin:
Marquette: Clinton 46> Trump 40, Margain: Clinton +6
Emerson: Clinton 48> Trump 42, Margain: Clinton +6
Election Result: Clinton 46.5 < Trump 47.2, Margain, Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania:
Monmouth: Clinton 48 > Trump 44, Margain, Clinton + 4
Susquehanna: Clinton 45 > Trump 43, Margain, Clinton + 2
Election Result: Clinton 47.5< Trump 48.2, Margain, Trump + 0.7
Analysis: When looking at these, it is clear that a trend developed during the 2016 election. Polls went one way, and the election went the other way. In all 6 polls I looked at, the data was one way, and the election went the other. While the Pennsylvania and Michigan polls weren’t horribly wrong, they still were incorrect. On the other hand, the Wisconsin polls were a complete disaster, and an example of the problems with polling during the 2016 election.
